Category Archives: Ferris State

2017-18 BELOW, Week 10

Hi, everyone.  While I was off slinging 632 GB down from space (harder than you’d think), the WCHA has played half of its season!  Jimmy.  I’m hoping to catch up here now that 2018 is upon us.  We’ll see.

2017-18 Week 10 BELOW

TeamBELOWExpWin%Week 0 BELOW+/-
Above are the 2017-18 BELOW rankings after Week 10 of WCHA conference play (70 of 140 games played).

As you’d expect, BELOW at the halfway mark pretty well mirrors the league standings.  BELOW still likes Bemidji State, probably because the Beavers have played just 12 games (as have Alaska-Anchorage) while Michigan Tech has played 18 (most in the league; all others have played 14).

Speaking of Tech, they’re the stunning team of the season, free-falling from 1st in BELOW at the start of the season to eighth now due to the second-best league offense (Minnesota State is tops in GF) going unsupported by the second-worst defense (Lake Superior is last in GA).  Where’s the beef, indeed.

Supplanting the Huskies in the standard top-three is Northern Michigan, which has excelled under first-year coach Grant Potulny.  The Wildcats have truly been an excellent team this season.

If you’re new, here’s a decent guide to BELOW.  Note that teams were reverted towards the mean at the start of the season because of the nature of college hockey player turnover.

I’ll be back later this week (hopefully).

2017 WCHA Playoffs Update, 2017-01-28

2016-17 Week 17 BELOW (In Progress)

TeamBELOWExpWin%Pts/GP %Pts (Max)
7-MTU173880%73%46 (67)
3-BSU164269%79%52 (70)
8-MSU1617n66%59%37 (58)
4-BGSU157160%55%38 (53)
2-UAF147747%45%27 (51)
5-FSU147446%41%26 (47)
6-LSSU146645%44%28 (49)
9-NMU142640%32%19 (43)
0-UAH135931%37%23 (44)
1-UAA135030%32%19 (43)
Above are the 2016-17 BELOW rankings after Week 12 of WCHA conference play (105 of 140 games played).

Friday night’s results:

  • Michigan Tech (5-2, including an  ENG) defeated Alabama-Huntsville.  Tech moves to BELOW 1738, Huntsville drops to 1359.
  • Bowling Green (3-2, OT) defeated Ferris State.
  • Minnesota State (4-2) defeated Lake Superior.

This firms up the playoff picture a bit:

  1. Bemidji State has clinched home ice in the playoffs with the Lake Superior loss.  If Ferris State takes any points from the Falcons tonight, the Beavers will have third clinched.
  2. Michigan Tech has clinched a playoff berth, as none of Alabama-Huntsville, Alaska-Anchorage nor Northern Michigan can pace the Huskies.  The Huskies can finish no worse than 7th, and if the results tonight are like last night’s, the Huskies will finish no worse than fifth.
  3. Bowling Green leads Ferris State 2-0-0-1 in the A tiebreaker between the two teams.  If the Falcons pick up any points tonight, they win at A in a tie with the Bulldogs.
  4. The same is true of Minnesota State and Lake Superior — if the Mavs pick up any points, they win any (improbable) tiebreakers.
  5. Michigan Tech has won the A tiebreaker over Alabama-Huntsville, though this scenario has no relevance.

Some folks have asked for Saturday predictions, but I ran into script-writing problems.  Maybe for next week.


2016-17 WCHA Week 17, Series 53 Prediction: Bowling Green (1559) at Ferris State (1486)

2016-17 Week 17, Series 53: Bowling Green (1559) at Ferris State (1486)

BGSU sweeps30.83%
FSU Sweeps12.20%
BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)7.20%
FSU 5 points (W, OTW)6.53%
BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)3.73%
FSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)2.74%

The teams split a pair in Ohio back on the first weekend in November before Bowling Green had their act together.  The spread of probabilities in the above table feels right to me.  It would make sense for BG to come out well ahead this weekend, but then they’ve played .530 hockey in league play this year.  The Falcons are better on the road this season.  I’d take a split, but I know that no one wearing orange wants that.

2016-17 WCHA Week 16, Series 47 Prediction: Ferris State (1468) at Bemidji State (1660)

2016-17 Week 16, Series 47: Ferris State (1468) at Bemidji State (1660)

BSU Sweeps42.35%
BSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)15.36%
BSU 5 points (W, OTW)14.62%
FSU 5 points (W, OTW)3.44%
FSU sweeps2.75%
FSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)2.74%

You’ll see that there’s a lot higher percentage of going to overtime now that I’ve adjusted for last week’s 7-overtimes-in-8-games fun-fest.  You’ll also see that Bemidji State is expected to get four or more points 72% of the time.

I pick a Beaver sweep.

2016-17 WCHA Week 15, Series 43 Prediction: Alaska at Ferris State

2016-17 Week 15, Series 43: Alaska (1447) at Ferris State (1498)

FSU sweeps29.14%
UAF Sweeps16.15%
FSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)6.74%
FSU 5 points (W, OTW)6.63%
UAF 5 points (W, OTW)4.88%
UAF 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)4.35%

There are two big league series this weekend, and this is the one that you may not think about.  Ferris State has 22 points to Alaska’s 19, and a strong weekend from the Bulldogs pushes them up against Bowling Green and Minnesota State, who promise to beat each other up this weekend, and moves them past Alabama-Huntsville, who seems to be in a free-fall at this point (although BELOW has never believed in them).

I expect Ferris to sweep.  Travel is always hard for the Alaska schools, and the Nanooks are also coming off of the break and may be rusty (if rested).

2016-17 WCHA Week 12 BELOW Ratings

2016-17 BELOW, Week 12

TeamWk12 BELOW+/-Wk12 EWP
4-BGSU1561-32 (-29 v MTU, -3 v UAF)59%
2-UAF1447-4 (-7 v UAA, +3 v BGSU)42%
Above are the 2016-17 BELOW rankings after Week 12 of WCHA conference play (74 of 140 games played).

Michigan Tech Leads the BELOW Pack

The Houghton Huskies mushed to the front of the WCHA pack with a strong showing against Bowling Green in Week 11, with 3-1, 2-1 wins over the Falcons.  They are expected to win 79% of the time against an average league opponent, and their 1730 BELOW rating is the highest of the 2016-17 season.

With that said, Bemidji State is still seven points ahead with two games against Alaska-Anchorage that ABOVE expects them to sweep around 52% of the time and widening their point lead 98% of the time.  It’s fairly likely that the Beavers will be +13 ahead in the standings.  I hope to revisit this by the end of the year.

Alabama-Huntsville Stampedes Through Marquette

With a pair of resounding wins, UAH improved to 6-0-1-1 on the road in WCHA play this season, keeping pace with the league leaders for holding down a shot at home ice in the first round of the playoffs, a big mark for a team widely held to be in the cellar this year.

That said, the Chargers’ road home is a tough one.  UAH is 1-0-1-6 at home this year, and they host Minnesota State, Tech, and Bemidji down the stretch while facing Lake Superior, Alaska, and Bowling Green on the road.  Huntsville needs to pick up some games at home if they have any hopes of March hockey in the Rocket City.

Northern Michigan has the biggest slide of the year: picked in the middle of the pack to begin the year, the Wildcats are dead last in the standings and are -163 on the year — that’s as bad as Bemidji has been good (+182).

Minnesota State Falters against Ferris State

It took the Mavericks two power-play goals in the third period on Saturday the 10th to forestall a sweep at the hands of Ferris State, who rocked them 3-0 the previous night.  The Mavs’ performance against Princeton in non-conference play this weekend does leave one wondering how good the Mavs really are at this point.

Bowling Green Sliding

The Falcons had a shot at putting breathing room between themselves and Mankato & Huntsville and just couldn’t execute, taking three losses in four games against Tech and Alaska.  BGSU was the coaches’ and media pick for league favorites this year, but everything that can go wrong seemingly has: players transferring, inconsistent goaltending, scoring going silent, and overall inconsistency.  One can feel the frustration emanating from Ohio — this is a better team than what they’ve showed so far, even though they’re a tenuous third place.

I’ll have BSU-UAA picks for you on Friday.

2016-17 WCHA Series 31 Predictions

2016-17 Week 10, Series 31: Ferris State (1523) at Alabama-Huntsville (1373)

FSU Sweeps43.47%
FSU 5 points (W, OTW)8.12%
FSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)7.71%
UAH sweeps7.55%
UAH 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)3.25%
UAH 5 points (W, OTW)3.16%

These two teams met during the first week of the season, and two months later, each team’s prospects have changed radically.  Alabama-Huntsville’s 2016-17 season looks a lot like last season’s so far: a hot October followed by a long slide into the cellar.  Ferris State’s rebound comes with this year’s stellar freshman goalie knocking last year’s out of the crease.

ABOVE likes Ferris to do well in Huntsville this weekend, taking away four or more points 59% of the time and coming away with two or less just 14% of the time.  The Chargers will look to make the New York Times out as prophetic.

Geof’s subjective prediction: Ferris sweeps, denying UAH an A tiebreaker over the Bulldogs.