2019 Final Tiebreakers

This year, there aren’t as many tiebreakers due to the following:

  1. Minnesota State is locked into the top spot.
  2. Alaska-Anchorage is locked into the 10th spot and has been for some time.
  3. Ferris State, by virtue of its loss to Lake Superior on Friday night, is locked into 9th and misses the playoffs.
  4. Alabama-Huntsville, with the Lake State win and their own defeat of Bowling Green, has secured 8th.
  5. Alaska will finish 7th, as they cannot be overtaken by Huntsville, nor can they catch up to Michigan Tech.
  6. Northern Michigan (17-0-2-8/53), BG (15-3-1-8/52), and LSSU (16-0-2-9/50) are all within three points of each other and will finish 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in some order.
  7. Bemidji State (13-2-2-10/45) and Tech (13-1-2-11/43) are separated by just two points and will finish 5th and 6th in some order.

Bemidji – Tech

This is the easiest tiebreaker to consider. If MTU gets a standard win and Mankato gets a standard win over the Beavers, the Huskies are 5th. In any other result, BSU finish 5th having won the season series.

Northern – BG – Lake State

This is the tough one. Let’s consider the options.

Three-Way Tie

A three-way tie requires NMU to lose outright (17-0-2-9/53), BGSU to lose to UAH after 65:00 (15-3-2-8/53), and LSSU (17-0-2-9/53) to win outright.

  • A: All three teams did not play four (4) games against each other. PUSH
  • B: League winning percentage sees┬áthe Falcons drop out of the comparison, as the Wildcats and Lakers have identical records that are better than BG’s.
  • A (again): NMU won the season series and would win the 2nd seed in this scenario.

Final result: NMU 2, LSSU 3, BGSU 4.

Two-Way Ties

Northern – Lake State

As noted above, NMU wins at A. If BGSU picks up two or three points in this scenario, the standings are BGSU – NMU – LSSU; if the Falcons lose outright, it’s NMU – LSSU – BGSU.

Northern – BG

The teams tie with any result where BG gets one more point on Saturday than Northern does.

  • A: The teams split their season series.
  • B: In all scenarios, NMU wins since their league winning percentage is higher.

BG – Lake State

The teams with with any result where LSSU has two more points than BGSU does on Saturday night: an LSSU win coupled with UAH winning after 65:00, or LSSU winning after 65:00 while BGSU loses outright.

  • A: The teams played just twice this season.
  • B: In the first scenario, LSSU finishes with a .732 W% and BGSU .625; in the second, LSSU still finishes at .732 and BGSU at .607.

In the first scenario, the teams could be in a three-way tie as noted above. If they finish tied at 52, the teams finish NMU – LSSU – BGSU.

Sadly, no prediction

I’ve ripped my code apart enough that I can’t put it together in time for picking tomorrow’s games. Besides, I have a rocket launch to monitor.