This year, there aren’t as many tiebreakers due to the following:
- Minnesota State is locked into the top spot.
- Alaska-Anchorage is locked into the 10th spot and has been for some time.
- Ferris State, by virtue of its loss to Lake Superior on Friday night, is locked into 9th and misses the playoffs.
- Alabama-Huntsville, with the Lake State win and their own defeat of Bowling Green, has secured 8th.
- Alaska will finish 7th, as they cannot be overtaken by Huntsville, nor can they catch up to Michigan Tech.
- Northern Michigan (17-0-2-8/53), BG (15-3-1-8/52), and LSSU (16-0-2-9/50) are all within three points of each other and will finish 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in some order.
- Bemidji State (13-2-2-10/45) and Tech (13-1-2-11/43) are separated by just two points and will finish 5th and 6th in some order.
Bemidji – Tech
This is the easiest tiebreaker to consider. If MTU gets a standard win and Mankato gets a standard win over the Beavers, the Huskies are 5th. In any other result, BSU finish 5th having won the season series.
Northern – BG – Lake State
This is the tough one. Let’s consider the options.
A three-way tie requires NMU to lose outright (17-0-2-9/53), BGSU to lose to UAH after 65:00 (15-3-2-8/53), and LSSU (17-0-2-9/53) to win outright.
- A: All three teams did not play four (4) games against each other. PUSH
- B: League winning percentage sees the Falcons drop out of the comparison, as the Wildcats and Lakers have identical records that are better than BG’s.
- A (again): NMU won the season series and would win the 2nd seed in this scenario.
Final result: NMU 2, LSSU 3, BGSU 4.
Northern – Lake State
As noted above, NMU wins at A. If BGSU picks up two or three points in this scenario, the standings are BGSU – NMU – LSSU; if the Falcons lose outright, it’s NMU – LSSU – BGSU.
Northern – BG
The teams tie with any result where BG gets one more point on Saturday than Northern does.
- A: The teams split their season series.
- B: In all scenarios, NMU wins since their league winning percentage is higher.
BG – Lake State
The teams with with any result where LSSU has two more points than BGSU does on Saturday night: an LSSU win coupled with UAH winning after 65:00, or LSSU winning after 65:00 while BGSU loses outright.
- A: The teams played just twice this season.
- B: In the first scenario, LSSU finishes with a .732 W% and BGSU .625; in the second, LSSU still finishes at .732 and BGSU at .607.
In the first scenario, the teams could be in a three-way tie as noted above. If they finish tied at 52, the teams finish NMU – LSSU – BGSU.
Sadly, no prediction
I’ve ripped my code apart enough that I can’t put it together in time for picking tomorrow’s games. Besides, I have a rocket launch to monitor.