Final Probabilities after FSU-LSSU:
- Ferris State: 6th, 100%
- Alaska: 7th, 59%; 8th, 41%
- Alabama-Huntsville: 7th, 41%; 8th, 59%
- Lake Superior: eliminated
By my BELOW-based system, Fairbanks should beat Alaska-Anchorage about 59% of the time.
Final Probabilities after BGSU-UAH:
- Alabama-Huntsville: 6th, 21%; 7th, 50%, 8th, 29%
- Ferris State: 6th, 48%; 7th, 21%; 8th, 31%
- Alaska: 6th, 18%; 7th, 30%; 8th, 39%; 9th, 13%.
- Lake Superior: 8th, 13%; 9th, 87%
- Alabama-Huntsville: 6th, 49%; 7th: 33%, 8th, 18%.
- Ferris State: 6th, 32%; 7th, 37%; 8th, 31%.
- Alaska: 6th 18%; 7th, 30%; 8th, 39%; 9th, 13%.
- Lake Superior: 8th, 13%; 9th, 87%.
I thought that I’d put the bottom line up front. This will be updated as today’s games progress.
What We Know
- Minnesota State has won that MacNaughton and will be the overall #1 seed after a 2-1 win over Bemidji State.
- Northern Michigan locked up the second seed with a 2-1 win over Michigan Tech.
- Bowling Green lost 3-2 to Alabama-Huntsville, but they have the third seed as consolation.
- Bemidji rounds out home ice, which we already knew.
- Tech will, as previously known, face BSU in the quarterfinals.
- Huntsville has made the postseason. They can finish as low as eighth.
- Ferris State made the postseason with a 4-1 win over LSSU.
- Alaska (5-3 loss to UAA) and Lake Superior are still scuffling for the final two spots.
Based on Friday’s results, only three of tonight’s games matter: BG -Huntsville, Lake State – Ferris, and Anchorage – Fairbanks. There are 64 possible combinations. Based on the figuring below and my BELOW-based prediction system, which is based on the following:
- UAH wins 34% of the time this afternoon against BGSU.
- FSU wins 53% of the time this evening against LSSU.
- UAF wins 64% of the time late tonight against UAA.
My screenshot of the attached spreadsheet gives you the rundown, but in short:
- 6th: Huntsville in 53 combinations, Ferris in 10, and Fairbanks in one (the dreaded three-way tie at 10-1-1-16)
- 7th: UAH eight times, FSU 42 times, and UAF 14 times
- 8th: UAH three times, FSU 12 times, UAF 45 times, and LSSU four times (anytime that UAF takes a standard loss and LSSU gets a standard win).
- 9th: LSSU 60 times, UAF four times.
Notes on the tiebreakers (moving row-by-row down the sheet):
- If Ferris and Fairbanks are tied at 10-1-1-16 / 33, Alaska wins since they defeated Minnesota State while the Mavericks swept the Bulldogs.
- If FSU and UAF are tied at 32 or 31 points, Ferris wins at B, 10 wins to 9.
- If Ferris and Huntsville are tied at 34 points, FSU wins at B, 11 wins to 10.
- If Huntsville, Ferris, and Fairbanks are all tied at 10-1-1-16 / 33, UAF wins the first D comparison (they beat MSU), and UAH wins the 2nd (they beat NMU).