Where We Are: 2018-02-24

Final Probabilities after FSU-LSSU:

  • Ferris State: 6th, 100%
  • Alaska: 7th, 59%; 8th, 41%
  • Alabama-Huntsville: 7th, 41%; 8th, 59%
  • Lake Superior: eliminated

By my BELOW-based system, Fairbanks should beat Alaska-Anchorage about 59% of the time.

Final Probabilities after BGSU-UAH:

  • Alabama-Huntsville: 6th, 21%; 7th, 50%, 8th, 29%
  • Ferris State: 6th, 48%; 7th, 21%; 8th, 31%
  • Alaska: 6th, 18%; 7th, 30%; 8th, 39%; 9th, 13%.
  • Lake Superior: 8th, 13%; 9th, 87%

Final Probabilities before BGSU-UAH:

  • Alabama-Huntsville: 6th, 49%; 7th: 33%, 8th, 18%.
  • Ferris State: 6th, 32%; 7th, 37%; 8th, 31%.
  • Alaska: 6th 18%; 7th, 30%; 8th, 39%; 9th, 13%.
  • Lake Superior: 8th, 13%; 9th, 87%.

I thought that I’d put the bottom line up front.  This will be updated as today’s games progress.

What We Know

  1. Minnesota State has won that MacNaughton and will be the overall #1 seed after a 2-1 win over Bemidji State.
  2. Northern Michigan locked up the second seed with a 2-1 win over Michigan Tech.
  3. Bowling Green lost 3-2 to Alabama-Huntsville, but they have the third seed as consolation.
  4. Bemidji rounds out home ice, which we already knew.
  5. Tech will, as previously known, face BSU in the quarterfinals.
  6. Huntsville has made the postseason.  They can finish as low as eighth.
  7. Ferris State made the postseason with a 4-1 win over LSSU.
  8. Alaska (5-3 loss to UAA) and Lake Superior are still scuffling for the final two spots.

Based on Friday’s results, only three of tonight’s games matter: BG -Huntsville, Lake State – Ferris, and Anchorage – Fairbanks.  There are 64 possible combinations.  Based on the figuring below and my BELOW-based prediction system, which is based on the following:

  • UAH wins 34% of the time this afternoon against BGSU.
  • FSU wins 53% of the time this evening against LSSU.
  • UAF wins 64% of the time late tonight against UAA.

My screenshot of the attached spreadsheet gives you the rundown, but in short:

  • 6th: Huntsville in 53 combinations, Ferris in 10, and Fairbanks in one (the dreaded three-way tie at 10-1-1-16)
  • 7th: UAH eight times, FSU 42 times, and UAF 14 times
  • 8th: UAH three times, FSU 12 times, UAF 45 times, and LSSU four times (anytime that UAF takes a standard loss and LSSU gets a standard win).
  • 9th: LSSU 60 times, UAF four times.

Notes on the tiebreakers (moving row-by-row down the sheet):

  1. If Ferris and Fairbanks are tied at 10-1-1-16 / 33, Alaska wins since they defeated Minnesota State while the Mavericks swept the Bulldogs.
  2. If FSU and UAF are tied at 32 or 31 points, Ferris wins at B, 10 wins to 9.
  3. If Ferris and Huntsville are tied at 34 points, FSU wins at B, 11 wins to 10.
  4. If Huntsville, Ferris, and Fairbanks are all tied at 10-1-1-16 / 33, UAF wins the first D comparison (they beat MSU), and UAH wins the 2nd (they beat NMU).