Where We Are, 2018-02-19

Again, here’s what we know:

  1. Bemidji State will be #4 and will host #5 Michigan Tech.
  2. Minnesota State wins the #1 seed if they get a single point this weekend, and they win the MacNaughton outright if they get two points or if they get one point while NMU gets five or NMU gets no more than four points.
  3. Northern Michigan wins the MacNaughton outright if they sweep Michigan Tech and Bemidji State sweeps Minnesota State; otherwise, they edge out Bowling Green for #2 anytime they get a standard win or end up with more points overall.
  4. Alabama-Huntsville and Alaska have the same record, 9-1-1-15.
  5. Huntsville, Fairbanks, Ferris State, and Lake Superior can all finish between 6th and 9th.
  6. If Ferris wins once, they will have at least 31 points and cannot finish below Lake State, Huntsville, or Fairbanks, so they would be 8th at a minimum.
  7. Lake State must get four points this weekend to advance to the postseason.  Here they would edge out Ferris (31-30), and tiebreakers would determine who progressed from there.  It’s complicated.

There are. a maximum of 4^10 ways for this to play out — 1,048,576 results all told, since there will be a winner and a loser, and the only question is whether it will be decided in a standard timeframe or in over-overtime.

I will be waiting to do a final branches-style result until Saturday morning.  Why?  If Minnesota State gets at least two points on Friday night (or if Northern Michigan doesn’t get a standard win), their Saturday night game means nothing in terms of seeding, since Mankato will be 1st and Bemidji will be 4th.  Even better, the Northern – BG seeding could be solidified, too, which allows us to be focused only on BGSU – UAH, UAF – UAA, and FSU – LSSU.

In fact, the following results set would just about set the field on Friday night:

  1. Minnesota State defeats Bemidji State. (MSU 1st, BSU 4th)
  2. Northern Michigan defeats Michigan Tech. (NMU 2nd, BGSU 3rd, MTU 5th).
  3. Ferris State defeats Lake Superior. (FSU cannot pass LSSU)
  4. Alabama-Huntsville gets any points from Bowling Green. (UAH in)
  5. Alaska gets any points from Alaska-Anchorage. (UAF in)

 

If Alabama-Huntsville and Alaska both pick up any points on Friday, LSSU is out, and the only questions for Friday would be the order of finish for FSU, UAF, and UAH.

If Fairbanks and Huntsville have the same result this weekend, the E tiebreaker is their record against MSU and NMU, which goes UAF’s way unless NMU gets to #1.

Whee.