2017-18 Week 11 BELOW

2017-18 Week 11 BELOW

TeamBELOWExpWin%+/-Points (Max)
8-MSU168074%-336 (72)
4-BGSU162467%028 (70)
9-NMU159263%+331 (67)
3-BSU158662%+3424 (66)
7-MTU154957%028 (58)
5-FSU147146%019 (61)
2-UAF144142%017 (59)
0-UAH141638%-3418 (60)
6-LSSU136832%012 (54)
1-UAA133638%09 (57)
Above are the 2017-18 BELOW rankings after Week 11 of WCHA conference play (74exc of 140 games played).

There weren’t many big changes with just two series in play — a split at the top kept Minnesota State and Northern Michigan pretty stationary, while a Bemidji State sweep of Alabama-Huntsville pushed the Beavers back up the standings and BELOW tables.

I owe you words on what BELOW looks like this year:

  1. Multi-goal wins are now given a K constant of 50, and empty-net goals aren’t removed.  This is done for a few reasons: 1) over the summer, I reconsidered my stance on the 3+ goal wins; 2) work with ABOVE 3.0 made me realize that I wouldn’t be predicting things any differently than that, so there wasn’t any value in breaking it out; 3) it saves me time in data entry.
  2. One-goal wins in regulation have a K of 40.
  3. One-goal wins in standard overtime have a K of 30.
  4. Games decided after 65:00 have a K of 20.

Here’s a brief preview of the week in case I don’t get to running the results through ABOVE:

  • BSU (78% expected value) @ LSSU
  • MSU (88% EV) @ UAA
  • UAH (46%) @ UAF
  • BGSU (71%) @ FSU