2017-18 Week 11 BELOW
There weren’t many big changes with just two series in play — a split at the top kept Minnesota State and Northern Michigan pretty stationary, while a Bemidji State sweep of Alabama-Huntsville pushed the Beavers back up the standings and BELOW tables.
I owe you words on what BELOW looks like this year:
- Multi-goal wins are now given a K constant of 50, and empty-net goals aren’t removed. This is done for a few reasons: 1) over the summer, I reconsidered my stance on the 3+ goal wins; 2) work with ABOVE 3.0 made me realize that I wouldn’t be predicting things any differently than that, so there wasn’t any value in breaking it out; 3) it saves me time in data entry.
- One-goal wins in regulation have a K of 40.
- One-goal wins in standard overtime have a K of 30.
- Games decided after 65:00 have a K of 20.
Here’s a brief preview of the week in case I don’t get to running the results through ABOVE:
- BSU (78% expected value) @ LSSU
- MSU (88% EV) @ UAA
- UAH (46%) @ UAF
- BGSU (71%) @ FSU