2017-18 WCHA Week 14 BELOW Ratings

2017-18 Week 14 BELOW

TeamBELOWExpWin%PtsMax
8-MSU166472%4569
9-NMU164570%4367
3-BSU163268%3666
4-BGSU162768%4064
7-MTU158161%3458
2-UAF142740%2347
0-UAH141638%2448
5-FSU140236%2246
6-LSSU134930%1539
1-UAA132026%1242
Above are the 2017-18 BELOW rankings after Week 14 of WCHA conference play (98 of 140 games played).

Notes:

  1. Minnesota State and Northern Michigan have clinched playoff berths.
  2. Bemidji State and Alaska-Anchorage have two games in hand on the rest of the league and will play every weekend from here out.

This week:

  • Michigan Tech (74%) at Ferris State
  • Bowling Green (83%) at Lake Superior
  • Northern (87%) at Anchorage
  • Bemidji (78%) at Alabama-Huntsville

The playoff run will be fun!  Sweeps all around by the home teams will put us to five teams in the playoffs with Ferris, Alaska, Huntsville, Lake State, and UAA vying for the final three spots.  The common series remaining between the five teams are: FSU at UAF in Week 16,  LSSU at UAA in Week 17 and FSU/LSSU and UAA/UAF in the final week.

Completed A tiebreakers: UAH over UAA (2-1-1), MTU over UAF (4-0-0), BSU over FSU (3-0-1), BGSU tied with MSU (2-2-0), MTU over LSSU (2-0-2), MSU tied with NMU (2-2-0), NMU over FSU (4-0-0).

2017-18 WCHA Week 12 BELOW

2017-18 Week 12 BELOW

TeamBELOWExpWin%+/-Points (Max)
8-MSU169275%+1242 (72)
4-BGSU165271%+2834 (70)
3-BSU160765%+2130 (66)
9-NMU159263%031 (67)
7-MTU154957%028 (58)
5-FSU144342%-2819 (55)
2-UAF143140%-1020 (56)
0-UAH142640%+1021 (51)
6-LSSU134729%-2112 (48)
1-UAA132427%-129 (51)
Above are the 2017-18 BELOW rankings after Week 12 of WCHA conference play (82 of 140 games played).

As I mentioned on Twitter, the league has gone from a 3-4-3 setup to a 4-1-3-2 setup.  Also, as someone wisely pointed out to me last year, 47 points guarantees you a playoff spot.  Yes, Minnesota State can clinch a playoff spot with two wins this weekend, as long as at least one of them comes in the first 65:00 of play.

I got really close to having series-by-series forecasts last week — actually, I had them done, and then SCIENCE! intervened.  I make no promises about this week, but I will try.

2017-18 Week 11 BELOW

2017-18 Week 11 BELOW

TeamBELOWExpWin%+/-Points (Max)
8-MSU168074%-336 (72)
4-BGSU162467%028 (70)
9-NMU159263%+331 (67)
3-BSU158662%+3424 (66)
7-MTU154957%028 (58)
5-FSU147146%019 (61)
2-UAF144142%017 (59)
0-UAH141638%-3418 (60)
6-LSSU136832%012 (54)
1-UAA133638%09 (57)
Above are the 2017-18 BELOW rankings after Week 11 of WCHA conference play (74exc of 140 games played).

There weren’t many big changes with just two series in play — a split at the top kept Minnesota State and Northern Michigan pretty stationary, while a Bemidji State sweep of Alabama-Huntsville pushed the Beavers back up the standings and BELOW tables.

I owe you words on what BELOW looks like this year:

  1. Multi-goal wins are now given a K constant of 50, and empty-net goals aren’t removed.  This is done for a few reasons: 1) over the summer, I reconsidered my stance on the 3+ goal wins; 2) work with ABOVE 3.0 made me realize that I wouldn’t be predicting things any differently than that, so there wasn’t any value in breaking it out; 3) it saves me time in data entry.
  2. One-goal wins in regulation have a K of 40.
  3. One-goal wins in standard overtime have a K of 30.
  4. Games decided after 65:00 have a K of 20.

Here’s a brief preview of the week in case I don’t get to running the results through ABOVE:

  • BSU (78% expected value) @ LSSU
  • MSU (88% EV) @ UAA
  • UAH (46%) @ UAF
  • BGSU (71%) @ FSU