2017 WCHA Playoffs Quarterfinal Projections

I haven’t re-written all of the code (gotta love being on-call), but here are projections for the four quarterfinals and the combinations that result:

Quarterfinal #1: Northern Michigan at Bemidji State

  • Bemidji sweeps 68.587% of the time and wins in three 20.975% of the time.
  • Northern sweeps 4.335% of the time and wins in three 6.103% of the time.

Quarterfinal #2: Lake Superior at Michigan Tech

  • Tech sweeps 65.791% of the time and wins in three 21.993% of the time.
  • Lake State sweeps 5.191% of the time and wins in three 7.025% of the time.

Quarterfinal #3: Alaska at Minnesota State

  • Mankato sweeps 51.005% of the time and wins in three 24.905% of the time.
  • Fairbanks sweeps 11.244% of the time and wins in three 12.846% of the time.

Quarterfinal #4: Ferris State at Bowling Green

  • BG sweeps 33.769% of the time and wins in three 24.982% of the time.
  • Ferris sweeps 20.526% of the time and wins in three 20.722% of the time.

Semifinal matchups

  • Bemidji – Tech – Mankato – BG : 35.047%
  • Bemidji – Tech – Mankato – Ferris: 24.603%
  • Bemidji – Tech – BG – Fairbanks: 11.138%
  • Tech – Mankato – BG – Northern:  9.278%
  • Bemidji – Tech – Ferris – Fairbanks:  7.818%
  • Bemidji – Mankato – BG – :  4.862%
  • Bemidji – Mankato – Ferris – Lake State:  3.453%
  • Tech – Mankato – Ferris – Northern:  2.864%
  • Bemidji – BG – Fairbanks – Lake State:  1.557%
  • Tech – BG – Fairbanks – Northern:  1.288%
  • Bemidji – Ferris – Fairbanks – Lake State :  1.083%
  • Tech – Ferris – Fairbanks – Northern:  0.908%
  • Mankato – BG – Lake State – Northern:  0.566%
  • Mankato – BG – Lake State – Northern:  0.398%
  • BG – Fairbanks – Lake State – Northern:  0.175%
  • Ferris – Fairbanks – Lake State – Northern:  0.121%

Methodology

This is pretty standard ABOVE stuff:

  1. Take the final 2016-17 BELOWs and randomize them +/- 40 points to enhance their quality as estimates.
  2. Calculate expected values using the Elo-style formulas.
  3. Have a random dice roll for an outcome of the game.
  4. Determine a winner of the game based on the expected values.
  5. Re-calculate BELOW (based on the randomized estimates).
  6. Repeat steps 2-4.
  7. If one team has one two games, they’ve swept and are declared the winner.
  8. If the teams split the first two games, repeat steps 2-5 to get the third game.
  9. Perform steps 7 and 8 for each of the four quarterfinals and account for one of the sixteen possible semifinal matchups.

I just didn’t get to finishing the semifinal and final codes for this.  I’ll look to do that tomorrow when perhaps I’ve slept.

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