2016-17 WCHA Week 21, Series 67 Projection: Minnesota State (1644) at Bemidji State (1662)

2016-17 Week 21, Series 67: Minnesota State (1644) at Bemidji State (1662)

ResultProbability
Splits32.13%
BSU Sweeps23.99%
MSU sweeps23.99%
BSU 5 points (W, OTW)5.69%
MSU 5 points (W, OTW)5.46%
MSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)4.02%
BSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)3.53%

That’s as even as even gets, and series like these are why I put the randomization into the model — BELOW is an estimate, and if I can randomize that estimate in a range, I stand a better shot at getting a more realistic projection given lots of variability.  ABOVE can shift the model up to 80 points in each direction, which would put the Beavers up near their heights while the Mavericks would be down near their season average.

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