2016-17 WCHA Week 16 BELOW

2016-17 Week 16 BELOW

TeamBELOWExpWin%Pts/GP %Pts (Max)
7-MTU173379%72%43 (67)
3-BSU164269%79%52 (70)
8-MSU160064%57%34 (58)
4-BGSU155958%53%35 (53)
5-FSU148648%43%26 (50)
6-LSSU148348%47%28 (52)
2-UAF147747%45%27 (51)
9-NMU142640%32%19 (43)
0-UAH136431%38%23 (47)
1-UAA135030%32%19 (43)
Above are the 2016-17 BELOW rankings after Week 12 of WCHA conference play (102 of 140 games played).

Home Ice Almost in Hand

With the weekend’s results, Bemidji State has 52 league points.  Alaska (51), Ferris State (50), Alabama-Huntsville (47), Alaska-Anchorage (43), and Northern Michigan (43) cannot match the Beavers’ total, which means that they can finish no worse than fifth.

Lake Superior can max out at 52 points.  If they’re tied, each team ends up with 16 regulation conference wins, but six Bemidji losses puts them with 10, and there they lose the C tiebreaker (LSSU his nine losses to date).

Bemidji is off this weekend, but all they need is for Minnesota State to pick up one point this weekend at home against Lake Superior.  It would also work for Ferris State to beat Bowling Green once to limit their maximum.

An Update at A

If you’ll remember from late last month, the A tiebreaker is unchanged: play four times and get the better points percentage to win.  I found 25 two-way A tiebreakers this year, and some of them have concluded.  The winners so far are below:

  1. Alabama-Huntsville over Ferris State (3-0-0-1)
  2. Lake Superior over Alabama-Huntsville (4-0-0-0)
  3. Alaska and Bowling Green remain tied (2-0-0-2)
  4. Minnesota State over Alaska (2-0-1-1)
  5. Bemidji State over Alaska-Anchorage (3-0-0-1)
  6. Michigan Tech over Alaska-Anchorage (1-1-2-0)
  7. Northern Michigan over Alaska-Anchorage (3-0-0-1)
  8. Bemidji State over Bowling Green (3-0-0-1)
  9. Bemidji State over Northern Michigan (4-0-0-0)
  10. Lake Superior and Northern Michigan remain tied (1-1-1-1)
  11. Minnesota State over Michigan Tech (2-1-0-1)

All three series this weekend — Michigan Tech at Alabama-Huntsville, Bowling Green at Ferris State, and Lake Superior at Minnesota State — finish out A tiebreakers.  Six more are decided in Weeks 18, 19, and 20, with the league’s rivalry weekend finishing off the final five.  It’ll be two more weeks before we know the result of the high-profile three-way tiebreaker, BSU-MSU-MTU.

A Look Ahead

2016-17 Week 16 BELOW, Revisited

TeamBELOWRBELOWExpWin%Est. Pts.
3-BSU1642156660%63
7-MTU1733148081%63
8-MSU1600147567%50
4-BGSU1559142568%47
2-UAF1477140660%41
6-LSSU1483147851%40
5-FSU1486153144%36
0-UAH1364160320%28
1-UAA1350151228%26
9-NMU1426159228%26
Let's look at what's left

That table is not ABOVE-generated.  It’s pretty simple:

  • RBELOW is the average of the opponents’ BELOW ratings for the rest of the season, as they stand today.
  • ExpWin% here is the expected winning percentage based on that team’s BELOW and their opponents’.
  • Est. Pts. is an extrapolation of the EW%, the number of games left, and the current total.

Bemidji has the lead, but Tech has the easier schedule.

Hopefully I’ll have time this week to knock out a to-completion script.  Working one job while training for another is wearing me out.

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