2016-17 Week 16, Series 51 Prediction: Minnesota State (1616) at Michigan Tech (1717)

2016-17 Week 16, Series 50: Minnesota State (1616) at Michigan Tech (1717)

ResultProbability
MTU sweeps30.23%
Splits24.29%
MTU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)12.97%
MTU 5 points (W, OTW)12.23%
MSU Sweeps7.66%
MSU 5 points (W, OTW)5.92%
MSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)4.96%

BELOW accounts for momentum in the sense that a great run (see Bemidji State’s climb to the top) gets you a high rating but a drop-off does the same (see Bemidji State’s drop of the past few weeks, or Michigan Tech’s similar drooping).

At the turn of the year, the gap in BELOW between the two was 1732-1589.  It’s quite narrower now.  This prediction feels somewhat Tech heavy, but not too much.  It would be easy to overreact to Tech’s struggles with Alaska-Anchorage and overvalue the Mavericks’ efforts against Alabama-Huntsville and Bowling Green, but I’m not sure that this is all that out of line.

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