2016-17 WCHA Week 14 BELOW Ratings

2016-17 BELOW, Week 14

TeamBELOW+/-EWPPtsGP
7-MTU1730Idle79%3616
3-BSU1665-1572%4920
8-MSU1604+2665%2916
4-BGSU1576+1561%2918
5-FSU1498-3250%2216
2-UAF1447Idle42%1916
6-LSSU1434-2241%1916
0-UAH1409-2637%2318
1-UAA1398+3236%1616
9-NMU1359+2231%1016
Above are the 2016-17 BELOW rankings after Week 12 of WCHA conference play (84 of 140 games played).

I won’t waste your time with a lot of analysis (I have simulations to run!), but we saw a lot of reversion to the mean at the lower levels of the league.  The biggest news from a BELOW and standings perspective is that Minnesota State shook off the memories of two ties in Huntsville last year to aggressively manhandle the Chargers this past weekend.  They’re tied in the standings with Bowling Green with two games in hand.

At the top, let’s consider the following:

  1. Bemidji has clinched a playoff spot before MLK Day.
  2. They didn’t run away with it.
  3. Using the same logic as we did in the link above, Michigan Tech’s four games in hand lets them get just one point behind the Beavers, but with Tech’s BELOW rating, we’d expect them to win a random WCHA game just 77% of the time, which would argue that they’ll be a bit short.  The Huskies has a trail to mush to get there, but they do face the Beavers again in February

Simulations/predictions to follow later today.