2016-17 WCHA Week 14, Series 40 Prediction: Minnesota State at Alabama-Huntsville

2016-17 Week 14, Series 40: Minnesota State (1578) at Alabama-Huntsville (1435)

ResultProbability
MSU Sweeps46.59%
Splits31.43%
UAH sweeps9.95%
MSU 5 points (W, OTW)4.26%
MSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)3.87%
UAH 5 points (W, OTW)1.82%
UAH 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)1.80%

Minnesota State started out 5-0 but hasn’t strung together two wins since.  Alabama-Huntsville is 1-0-1-6 at home in league play.  The teams are tied with 23 points coming into to the weekend.  Given all of the above, a split seems perfectly reasonable.

The range of outcomes is pretty wide.  If UAH routed MSU both times, they’d have a BELOW of 1511 that’s just higher than the Mavericks’ 1502; that happens about 1.31% of the time in a run of 1,000,000 trials.  Conversely, a Mankato rout of the Chargers happens 13.82% of the time and sees the teams at 1611 and 1402.

Geof’s Subjective Prediction: split.