2016-17 Week 14, Series 40: Minnesota State (1578) at Alabama-Huntsville (1435)
|MSU 5 points (W, OTW)||4.26%|
|MSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||3.87%|
|UAH 5 points (W, OTW)||1.82%|
|UAH 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||1.80%|
Minnesota State started out 5-0 but hasn’t strung together two wins since. Alabama-Huntsville is 1-0-1-6 at home in league play. The teams are tied with 23 points coming into to the weekend. Given all of the above, a split seems perfectly reasonable.
The range of outcomes is pretty wide. If UAH routed MSU both times, they’d have a BELOW of 1511 that’s just higher than the Mavericks’ 1502; that happens about 1.31% of the time in a run of 1,000,000 trials. Conversely, a Mankato rout of the Chargers happens 13.82% of the time and sees the teams at 1611 and 1402.
Geof’s Subjective Prediction: split.