2016-17 WCHA Week 14, Series 39 Prediction: Bemidji State at Bowling Green

2016-17 Week 14, Series 39: Bemidji State (1680) at Bowling Green (1561)

ResultProbability
BSU Sweeps43.11%
Splits32.98%
BGSU sweeps11.97%
BSU 5 points (W, OTW)4.03%
BSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)3.68%
BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)2.00%
BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)1.94%

Notes on ABOVE 1.4

From this week forward, there will be a few changes in the probabilities.  I’ve been using last year’s data for determining how teams would progress into the second overtime, using a conservative 12.6% rate of entry.  In reality, it’s been 6.3% this year, so the predictions now reflect that: games are getting decided in 65:00 about 94% of the time.

As such, the margins for the OTW/OTL have changed, which broadens the chances for regulation wins — for both teams!  Splits will be predicted as more common, but the probabilities of sweeps will go higher as well.

I have considered putting an extra prediction check for shootouts, which have decided matters about as often as the 3v3 overtime but which receive a weaker weight in my system.  I’m not sure of the value of this given that the changes in BELOW are pretty small (generally 1-3 points for any individual game) and would wash out in a Monte Carlo simulation like what ABOVE uses.  It would be “fun” in the same way of “how often do all of these games play out exactly as predicted?” games go, which is to say a novelty with very little real value.

About the Series

Bemidji knows that they need these points, and they’re going to be after it.  They traveled from Alaska directly to Ohio this week for this series, which is Thursday-Friday as a result.  That could mean bus legs for the Beavers, but they’re off next week.

Worse for Bemidji, they play just eight more WCHA games after this weekend.  A BG sweep, while unlikely, puts the Falcons 16 points back with two games in hand and having nullified the A tiebreaker with a series split.

Finish strong, Beavers, or you’ll regret it.

Geof’s Subjective Prediction: Beavers sweep.