2016-17 WCHA Week 13, Series 38 Prediction: Bemidji State at Alaska-Anchorage

2016-17 Week 13, Series 38: Bemidji State (1719) at Alaska-Anchorage (1327)

ResultProbability
BSU Sweeps51.81%
Splits23.47%
BSU 5 points (W, OTW)9.19%
BSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)8.84%
UAA 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)2.29%
UAA 5 points (W, OTW)2.00%
UAA sweeps1.91%

I’m not too sure what to say about this one.  The Beavers look like they’ll be the hot knife through the Seawolves’ proverbial butter.  While UAA has been. tough out this season despite losing a ton of games, the only games that BSU has lost this season are:

  • Three games to teams ranked #1 nationally at the time of the game (North Dakota, North Dakota, Minnesota-Duluth),
  • one game to Michigan Tech, the highest-BELOW-rated team at present and the only WCHA team to defeat them,
  • and two games to Princeton, who showed up to the Sanford Center winless but have been on an 8-2 tear since.

That gives me a pretty high confidence in this weekend’s pick.  By BELOW, BSU would be expected to win 91% of the time in a single game between the two.  ABOVE is a little more conservative, figuring that the average game goes to 65+ minutes about 13% of the time.  That inflates the Seawolves’ chances a bit.

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