2016-17 WCHA Week 12 Series 37 Prediction: Bowling Green at Alaska

2016-17 Week 12, Series 37: Bowling Green (1564) at Alaska (1444)

ResultProbability
BGSU Sweeps39.15%
Splits28.24%
UAF sweeps9.80%
BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)7.70%
BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)7.28%
UAF 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)3.69%
UAF 5 points (W, OTW)3.63%

Sorry to have gotten this out so late, especially given that it’s just the one series.

I don’t account for travel difficulties with BELOW, figuring that it just works its way into the system.  If Fairbanks is a hard place to play because it takes more than a day to travel there, well, UAF will be higher in BELOW because of it.  Modeling for traveling difficulties could be done, but you do have the problem of small sample sizes, weather, team growth/decline, etc.  For now, I feel pretty good about leaving it be.  It’s not like we’re Atlantic Hockey with one team as a huge outlier.

Despite the travel, BG is a clear-cut favorite here, although not an overwhelming one.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a split here, but ABOVE says that UAF comes out ahead just about 17% of the time, and that seems right to me.

Geof’s subjective prediction: Falcons sweep.