2016-17 WCHA Series 28 Prediction: Bowling Green at Lake Superior

ABOVE Prediction for Series 28: Bowling Green at Lake Superior

2016-17 Week 10, Series 28: Bowling Green (1602) at Lake Superior (1457)

ResultProbability
BGSU Sweeps42.73%
Splits26.41%
BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)8.11%
LSSU sweeps8.11%
BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)7.61%
LSSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)3.32%
LSSU 5 points (W, OTW)3.19%

As I consider this series, it’s about one thing to me: are these teams who we thought they might be earlier in the season — Lake Superior streaking, Bowling Green barely slipping the surly bonds of earth — or who they are now (BG 3rd in the standings, LSSU in 7th)?  BELOW is convinced that the Falcons have left the nest and thinks that the Lakers are staying close to harbor as the ice edges closer to land.

A great weekend helps the Falcons keep pace in the WCHA standings, probably wrapped up in the hopes that Michigan Tech can do what Minnesota State could not: defeat Bemidji State.  If the Huskies cannot level things at one end of the UP, Bowling Green could take a long stride toward taking the MTU’s place as the top challenger.

BELOW swings: if BG routs the home team in both games (12.30% probability), they jump to 1635 in BELOW as Lake Superior dips to 1424.  If the Lakers rout the Falcons both nights (0.75% probability), they jump to 1533 and pass the Falcons, who would fall to 1526.

Geof’s subjective prediction: Split.  I’m just not 100% sold on this Falcon team’s ability to play at a high level every night, and Gordon Defiel can steal a game.