Week 9 Predictions
Not only is it a short week for teams traveling — especially Alaska-Anchorage, it’s a short week for me after a long one last week. I spent that week trying to make the code more generic, and so I didn’t get to chain Weeks 9 and 10 together. Soon, perhaps.
Nothing has changed with the ABOVE model for predicting games.
2016-17 Week 9: Michigan Tech (1676) at Alaska (1485)
|MTU 5 points (W, OTW)||6.983%|
|MTU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||6.713%|
|UAF 5 points (W, OTW)||2.282%|
|UAF 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||2.265%|
Michigan Tech had a tougher-than-expected time in Anchorage last weekend, with only the fourth-most-likely probability (4 points) coming into reality. The Huskies mushed six hours up the road to Fairbanks to play Alaska, who is a stronger foe. As such, a 71% of a Tech sweep drops to a 50% one. That probably matches the expectations Mitch’s Misfits after that overtime loss.
2016-17 Week 9: Alaska-Anchorage (1326) at Bowling Green (1588)
|BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)||7.777%|
|BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||7.753%|
|UAA 5 points (W, OTW)||1.462%|
|UAA 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||1.165%|
Last week, the Seawolves had about a 2% chance of coming away from the weekend with more points than the visiting team. This week, they travel to Ohio, where above gives their chances as a bit over 5%.