2016-17 WCHA Week 9 Predictions (ABOVE 1.3)

Week 9 Predictions

Short week

Not only is it a short week for teams traveling — especially Alaska-Anchorage, it’s a short week for me after a long one last week.  I spent that week trying to make the code more generic, and so I didn’t get to chain Weeks 9 and 10 together.  Soon, perhaps.

Nothing has changed with the ABOVE model for predicting games.

2016-17 Week 9: Michigan Tech (1676) at Alaska (1485)

ResultProbability
MTU Sweeps50.616%
Splits25.010%
MTU 5 points (W, OTW)6.983%
MTU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)6.713%
UAF sweeps5.729%
UAF 5 points (W, OTW)2.282%
UAF 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)2.265%

Michigan Tech had a tougher-than-expected time in Anchorage last weekend, with only the fourth-most-likely probability (4 points) coming into reality.  The Huskies mushed six hours up the road to Fairbanks to play Alaska, who is a stronger foe.  As such, a 71% of a Tech sweep drops to a 50% one.  That probably matches the expectations Mitch’s Misfits after that overtime loss.

2016-17 Week 9: Alaska-Anchorage (1326) at Bowling Green (1588)

ResultProbability
BGSU Sweeps60.435%
Splits18.548%
BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)7.777%
BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)7.753%
UAA sweeps2.495%
UAA 5 points (W, OTW)1.462%
UAA 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)1.165%

Last week, the Seawolves had about a 2% chance of coming away from the weekend with more points than the visiting team.  This week, they travel to Ohio, where above gives their chances as a bit over 5%.