Oh hey, I predict games here. Doing two jobs in one work week is hard, and this has suffered as a result. Sorry! You get what you pay for.
The big change in the model this week is that I’m no longer calculating a center point between each team’s expected winning percentage. This pushed predictions to the center, which made sense in a tie-happy WCHA. With just four games going past 65:00 this year, I’m comfortable with not squashing things to the middle. This will make results a bit more … one-sided. We’ll see if that was the right call or not soon enough.
The small change in the model this week is that the code’s a little more generalized. I figure that I can beat on it a little bit more in the next week and have something worth publishing soon.
2016-17 Week 8: Bowling Green (1559) at Alabama-Huntsville (1402)
|BGSU 5 points (W, OTW)||6.768%|
|BGSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||6.245%|
|UAH 5 points (W, OTW)||2.647%|
|UAH 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||2.624%|
Yes, even with the Chargers’ strong start and the Falcons’ slow one, BELOW thinks that the visitors are far stronger. I want the data either way, but the degree that hangs on my wall is not a fan of orange and brown.
2016-17 Week 8: Michigan Tech (1680) at Alaska-Anchorage (1322)
|MTU 5 points (W, OTW)||8.461%|
|MTU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||8.021%|
|UAA 5 points (W, OTW)||0.771%|
|UAA 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||0.759%|
After a week when I really, really rankled Michigan Tech fans by continuing to argue that Bemidji State is making it very, very hard to catch them, I don’t know what to think that they’ll say about ABOVE’s predictions here. Will it be, “Thank you! We’re better than you say that we are!” or “You’re jinxing us!” Either way, ABOVE says that Anchorage will have several trails of paws on it. Sorry to the Bronies.
2016-17 Week 8: Northern Michigan (1419) at Bemidji State (1697)
|BSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||8.004%|
|BSU 5 points (W, OTW)||7.875%|
|NMU 5 points (W, OTW)||1.275%|
|NMU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||0.898%|
I don’t know if the Puckheads with pitchforks are coming for me or Walt Kyle.
2016-17 Week 8: Lake Superior (1502) at Ferris State (1478)
|LSSU 5 points (W, OTW)||4.914%|
|LSSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||4.607%|
|FSU 5 points (W, OTW)||4.298%|
|FSU 4 points (W, OTL or OTW, OTW)||4.335%|
I’m not ready to be regularly publishing this information just yet, but let’s look at something that ABOVE can tell us:
LSSU: Max: 1552 (6.413%) | Min: 1444 (2.947%) | Mean: 1503 | Median: 1501
Max: 1536 (2.947%) | Min: 1428 (6.413%) | Mean: 1476 | Median: 1478
What does that tell you? Add that to the above table, and you’ll see that it’s a little bit more than twice as likely that the Lakers will blow the Bulldogs out twice than the reverse. That said, on average, the teams pretty much leave the weekend with the same BELOW that they came in.
As always, these eight games were simulated 100,000 times, but each will only be played once in the next 48+ hours. Drop the puck!