I didn’t do too badly

From way back around Valentine’s Day:

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The real standings (big misses in boldface type):

  1. Minnesota State: 21-4-3 (45)
  2. Michigan Tech: 21-5-2 (44)
  3. Bowling Green: 17-8-3 (37)
  4. Bemidji State: 12-11-5 (29)
  5. Ferris State: 13-14-1 (27)
  6. Northern Michigan: 11-13-4 (26)
  7. Alabama-Huntsville: 7-20-1 (15)
  8. Lake Superior: 7-20-1 (15) [lost tiebreaker to UAH]
  9. Alaska-Anchorage: 5-21-2 (12)

I also missed Alaska — 14-12-2 (30) — big-time.  In short, I didn’t see a fade by BG, a blistering finish by a Nanook squad that was in the doldrums a month ago, and I was off on Ferris by two wins.  With everyone else, I was within a win or so of the final rankings.

I could have done a scenario of how many times I got X record or Y standings breakdown.  Hopefully I can pull that off for next year.

My predictions for the postseason is that the first round goes chalk, Bemidji upsets Mankato and Tech in the tournament, and maybe BG squeaks in as a third at-large bid for the WCHA.

Until next year!

2014-15 WCHA Playoff Branches

I’ve posted the 2014-15 WCHAPlayoffs.com Branches, your Saturday night guide to “who gets what seeding if so-and-so happens”.

You’ve probably seen this elsewhere, but here is the long and short of it:

  1. Minnesota State gets the #1 seed anytime Michigan Tech doesn’t win or anytime they get at least one point off of Bemidji State.  This happens in 72 of the 81 possible scenarios.
  2. Michigan Tech gets the #2 seed every time except when they win and Bemidji State wins.  This happens in nine of the 81 possible scenarios.
  3. Bowling Green will be the #3 seed.  Their game largely determines the outcome of the #7/8 seed as well as their place in the Pairwise.
  4. Bemidji State will be the #4 seed.  Their game affects #1/2 seeding only.
  5. Northern Michigan gets the #5 seed anytime then win and anytime Ferris State loses.  If Northern loses and Ferris wins, the Wildcats are 6th.  If both teams tie on the night, Northern Michigan is 5th.  If Ferris and Northern go to a tiebreaker — Ferris win + Northern tie, Ferris tie + Northern loss, etc. — Northern Michigan is 6th.  The Wildcats get the 5th seed in 54 of 81 possible scenarios.
  6. Ferris State gets the 5th seed only when it wins and Northern Michigan doesn’t win or when it ties and Northern Michigan loses (27 of 81 possible scenarios).  Otherwise, the Bulldogs end up in 6th.
  7. Alabama-Huntsville is 7th whenever they win, whenever they tie and Lake Superior doesn’t win, or if both they and the Lakers lose tonight.  The Chargers are 7th in 54 of 81 possible scenarios.
  8. Lake Superior is 8th only when they pass the Chargers in points, such as when they win and UAH does not and when they tie but UAH loses.  The Lakers are 7th in 27 of 81 possible scenarios.

I don’t really have time to do a weighted probability analysis, but the numbers generally suggest that the night will be wins for BG, MTU, FSU, and BSU.

That would be Branch #3 in the PDF, which means it would be 1-MTU, 2-MSU, 3-BGSU, 4-BSU, 5-FSU, 6-NMU, 7-UAH, 8-LSSU.

Enjoy the games.  I’ll be tweeting the UAH game over at @weloveuahhockey.

Week 24 Best/Worst

As you probably know, there are three tiers left in the 2014-15 WCHA playoff seedings:

  • Minnesota State or Michigan Tech will get the #1 seed.
  • Bemidji State, Northern Michigan, or Ferris State will get seeds #4-6.
  • Alabama-Huntsville, Lake Superior, and Alaska-Anchorage will vie for the final two slots.

Bowling Green is guaranteed to finish third, and Fairbanks is guaranteed to dream of spring break with Ethan Hawke.

Here are best/worst for each team:

Minnesota State:

  • Highest: 1st Place (wins McNaughton) with any points this weekend OR anything less than a Michigan Tech sweep while being swept by Bemidji.
  • Lowest: 2nd place if swept by Bemidji and Tech sweeps Northern.

Michigan Tech:

  • Highest: 1st Place (wins McNaughton) with sweep of Northern and a Bemidji sweep of Mankato.
  • Lowest: 2nd place with any other result than the one above.

Bowling Green:

  • 3rd place regardless of any results this weekend.

Bemidji State:

  • Highest: 4th Place anytime they have as many or more points than Northern Michigan and get at least one more point than Ferris
  • Lowest: 6th Place if Ferris sweeps Lake Superior, Mankato sweeps Bemidji, and Northern gets at least one point this weekend.

Northern Michigan:

  • Highest: 4th Place any time they finish with more points than Bemidji.  Because this gets them to at least 28 points, Ferris State cannot push to tiebreakers.
  • Lowest: 6th place if they pick up zero or one point against Tech and Ferris sweeps Lake Superior.

Ferris State:

  • Highest: 4th when they sweep Lake Superior, Mankato sweeps Bemidji, and Northern gets zero or one point from Tech.
  • Lowest: 6th place anytime they get less than three points this weekend or when they get three and Northern gets at least one.

Alabama-Huntsville:

  • Highest: 7th place if they finish with as many or more points than Lake Superior.
  • Lowest: Miss the playoffs if Anchorage sweeps Fairbanks, BG sweeps UAH, and Lake Superior picks up at least one point against Ferris.

Lake Superior:

  • Highest: 7th place if they pass UAH in points. Doing so gets them to at least 16 points and ensures that they win the D tiebreaker with Anchorage.
  • Lowest: Miss the playoffs if they are swept by Ferris State and Anchorage sweeps Fairbanks. UAH’s A tiebreaker advantage over the Lakers means that UAH makes the playoffs regardless of their weekend in Ohio.

Alaska-Anchorage:

  • Highest: 7th when they sweep Fairbanks, Bowling Green sweeps UAH, and Ferris State sweeps Lake Superior.
  • Lowest: Miss the playoffs anytime they don’t sweep Fairbanks.  A win and a tie against the Nanooks gets them to 15 points and drops them out via the B tiebreaker.

Week 24 Tiebreakers

If you’re confused about the WCHA tiebreakers, my post from two weeks ago will catch you up.  Here’s what matters in Week 24:

  1. Minnesota State’s three-point weekend against Michigan Tech last weekend puts them in prime position to win the McNaughton Cup for 2014-15.  The Mavericks’ advantage is not just in league points: Mankato’s 3-0-1 season series record against Tech means that they win the A tiebreaker.  While I’ll have a more detailed breakdown post this week, it’s really simple: for the Huskies to win the McNaughton Cup, they have to sweep Northern Michigan while Bemidji State sweeps Mankato.
  2. Bowling Green is locked into third place.  They face struggling Alabama-Huntsville this weekend: the Chargers need points, and the Falcons are at #14 in PWR and need to not lose ground to avoid having to win the Broadmoor to make it into the NCAAs.
  3. Bemidji State has 27 points, Northern Michigan has 26, and Ferris State has 23.  I’ve previously covered this triad, but last week’s results made this pretty simple.  If Bemidji and Northern are tied, the Beavers make it through.  If Mankato sweeps the Beavers and the Bulldogs sweep Lake Superior, Ferris State wins the B tiebreaker.  Ferris State and Northern could tie if Ferris gets three more points than the Wildcats do, but Ferris State wins the B tiebreaker in either instance.  If all three teams tie at 27, Ferris gets fourth place, as they would have 13 conference wins to the other two teams’ 11.  All three teams could get home ice, and all three teams could finish in 6th place.
  4. Anchorage’s upset of Bowling Green really shook things up in the race for the last two spots.  I’ve previously covered the tiebreakers here, but they’re pretty simple: 1) UAH wins the A tiebreaker over LSSU; 2) UAA has to sweep the Nanooks to even have a shot at knotting up the B tiebreaker; 3) UAH wins the C tiebreaker with UAA; 4) UAA and LSSU would proceed to the D tiebreaker, which gets really complicated.  The Seawolves and Lakers have identical winning percentages against MSU, MTU, and BGSU.  LSSU wins the D tiebreaker regardless of where BSU and NMU finish.  All three teams can make it to 7th, and all three teams can miss the playoffs.